After becoming a category 5 hurricane located further east of the Atlantic basin on Saturday, September 28 at the last minute, the hurricane is heading towards the Azores as a category 1-2 hurricane for Mars and Wednesday, 1 – October 2, 2019.
The fundamental question is whether the remains of the hurricane will subsequently affect the Peninsula or not in its northern zone.
The fundamental keys to Lorenzo’s subsequent evolution lies in:
– The degree of interaction with the flow of the west and their associated systems: Vaguada and jet in height
– The presence of a deep storm to the west of Lorenzo that will condition its absorption of Lorenzo or the displacement to areas of the northern peninsular as ex or post Lorenzo
The high-resolution deterministic model of the ECMWF now bets on leaving Lorenzo‘s remains in an area closer to the Peninsula, as shown in this 12 UTC pass. It is a somewhat adverse scenario for peninsular land areas.
Once again Lorenzo shows breaking breaks and probabilistic predictions are the fundamental tools in prediction, especially with high uncertainty systems. Most of the scenarios place Lorenzo’s remains outside the Peninsula showing side effects of wind, waves and rising temperatures. Other scenarios, the less, bring him closer.